I had an idea about 15 years ago that I wound up pursuing a lot longer than I should have. Near the end of that era I read an essay by Seth Godin called The Dip, about that low point when an idea you are convinced is worthy just isn’t taking hold. How do you know when to push on in order to break through, and when to fold because it’s a dead end?
In my case I wound up not having a choice. It was a weird project to be doing as a Microsoft evangelist with a vaguely-defined portfolio, things weren’t working out for anyone. I moved on and didn’t think much about it for a decade. Then someone asked if it might still be viable. I realized it had become possible to reboot the project and overcome one of the former obstacles: the need for a lot of boring, uncomplicated, but custom software.
The new version sat as a proof of concept for another year or so, then started to attract a few demand signals. Now it’s the Claude Code era and everything has come together in a hurry, meeting and even surpassing former goals.
So here I am on the other side of The Dip, facing the same question: will the idea take hold? The problem it aims to help people solve is still universally acknowledged to be unsolved, and the solution looks more plausible than ever. Of course I am not the only person spending an unhealthy amount of time directing genies to summon useful software into existence. Some are programmers who savor newfound empowerment. Others are not programmers and they savor it even more. They are systems thinkers. They know what they need and roughly how it should work, and can direct the genies to make it so. If good ideas are a dime a dozen, so now also are good executions of ideas. So I reckon it’s a level playing field where, as always, value plus luck may succeed.
If I do find myself back in The Dip again, I won’t try to push the idea farther than it wants to go. If the world needs it, and can now embrace it, I am there for that. If not, I have other irons in the fire.
Those who know me know the backstory, for those who don’t the details don’t matter. If you have been on the other side of the Dip, I’m curious: what happened?
